The Confidence and Curiosity to Doubt

Back in the 80s, most researchers thought ulcers were caused by lifestyle and stress. They were all entrenched in their views and busy exploring these avenues to discover how to prevent the debilitating disease.

However, as the saying goes:

"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, but the illusion of knowledge.” - Daniel Boorstin

When Barry Marshall and Robin Warren came along and posited the preposterous idea that ulcers might be caused by a bacterium, they were ridiculed.

When Marshall and Warren presented their results at a conference showing the link between ulcers and Heliobacter pylori, it was rejected by the researchers that were present with a vigorous zeal.

The medical community thought they were clueless and were resistant to their ideas. The researchers who were present had invested (and wasted) many years of their research exploring wholly different and incompatible views. Of course they weren’t going to give up their ideas easily they had spent many years to develop.

The skepticism made Marshall and Warren frustrated. Why weren’t they taking their findings seriously? In a moment of despair, Marshall decided on an extremely bold move: to ingest Heliobacter pylori to give himself an ulcer. He documented how the ulcer developed and ultimately used antibiotics to cure himself of the ulcer.

Warren and Marshall won the Nobel Prize in 2005 for their research. What does this story show?

Too much (unwarranted) foresight may hurt afterthought.

Be wary if you think you've got it all figured out, it may close your mind to what's actually going on.

You need confidence and expertise to think ahead and predict, but leave the door open for doubt so you may unearth surprises and discover what is really going on.

That’s why you need confidence and doubt. You need not only love for your own ideas, but also the curiosity to consider that you might be wrong.