Sayonara to the Golden Age of Scrum

Scrum Will Become Niche Like XP

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” - Niels Bohr

Most predictions about the future are wrong. With that caveat in mind, I will state the following:

The golden age of Scrum is over. Scrum will decline to become something niche like XP, that is used by a minority of teams globally.

It’s difficult to talk about the specifics on the timeframe of this happening, but I believe it will happen sooner than you think. I had this realization when doomscrolling Reddit and stumbling upon a question that piqued my interest:

I don’t think answering the question “Are there are any new developments in Scrum?” really matters, because Scrum itself is over the hill.

Who cares about new Blackberry developments in 2024?

As big as Blackberry was, its market share was only 43%, which is peanuts compared to Scrum's at its peak. We are currently witnessing the biggest decline of any Agile framework in history.

That’s a big statement, and you might wonder: What evidence do you have to back it up?

First of all, according to the State of Agile reports, Scrum seems to have peaked in 2022:

A whopping 87% of teams were using Scrum. In the state of Agile 2024 report, this graph was omitted entirely, yet it still states the following:

This is a massive dip in Scrum usage, down from 87% to 63%, which means if we extrapolate this data that in the timespan of two years nearly 3 out of 10 Scrum Teams stopped using Scrum.

Of course, we can’t conclude this based on this data, as we don’t know how representative it is of the population or even if the difference is significant, but I’m trying to paint a picture of how big the drop could potentially be.

The drop in market share also fits with market observations. Word on the street in the community is that both Scrum.org and Scrum Alliance are experiencing a massive dip in revenue. I’ve personally heard that many Agile Coaches and Scrum Masters struggle to find new jobs or to sell their training and workshops.

Another sign that Scrum.org is feeling the heat of the Scrum decline is that they appear to be betting more and more on Product Management. Scrum.org introduced its own flavor of Marty Cagan’s Product Operating Model*, which they’ve dubbed the Agile Product Operating Model:

*Marty Cagan would be the first to say that he did not invent the Product Operating Model. He described the set of principles, practices and competencies that the best tech-powered companies already use. Marty introduced the new label Product Operating Model to refer to this way of working that revolves around Empowered Teams.

Agile Product Operating Model by Scrum.org

Desperate times can result in desperate moves, and this is a clear example. Scrum.org is devoid of thought leadership in this instance, and they’re simply trying to ride the slipstream of someone else’s success.

Do you know which organization is the ultimate master of riding the slipstream of others' success? The organization behind the Scaled Agile Framework (SAFe).

We’re all too familiar in the Scrum community with this ‘copy-paste-and-twist’ formula. It’s exactly what the folks behind the Scaled Agile Framework are doing. They’re like the Borg, and any successful approach should prepare to be assimilated and Borgified.

So, where do we go from here?

Can Scrum and the Scrum Certification Organizations Reinvent Themselves?

I love the following Dutch saying:

“The beam of the lighthouse doesn’t shine on the ground underneath the lighthouse.”

You might think that Scrum.org and Scrum Alliance are Agile organizations that live Scrum, breathing adaptation and innovation, but you would be very wrong.

All the signals I’m getting from those ‘in the know’ are that these are sluggish, bureaucratic, and corporate organizations that find it difficult to make decisions and respond to changes in the market. The Agile Product Operating model is a good example: it’s too little, too late.

The Scrum certification organizations talk the walk, but they don’t walk the talk. The Scrum certification bodies are suffering from the Innovator’s Dilemma: they seem unprepared to let go of Scrum and cannibalize themselves.

All their Product Management and Product Ownership courses are framed from the perspective of Scrum, and this is their biggest weakness. All the Scrum certification bodies start with: Scrum is the way, and everything else flows from that.

This is exactly why I won’t be expecting any innovation in the realm of Scrum or the Scrum Guide. In the words of Ken Schwaber:

”Scrum is simple, just use it as is!!”

That’s precisely what we haven’t seen happening since the first version of the Scrum Guide in 2010. And if Scrum is that simple, why do we have a gazillion Scrum courses, yet everybody is still doing it wrong?

Frequent inspection and adaptation applies to those who do Scrum, but not to Scrum itself. Scrum works, and if it doesn’t: you’re not doing Scrum.

And that, my friends, is why people have caught on. Scrum isn’t delivering the promised results and it’s time for something new.

Even Scrum.org agrees, which is why they’re now trying to push their own version of the Product Operating Model. I expect this to fail, so why go for the Agile Product Operating Model if you can go for the OG Product Operating Model that has already proven itself in the market?

We don’t need another version of the Product Operating Model. It’s difficult to beat someone else at their game. It’s time for the Scrum certification organizations to truly reinvent themselves or slowly fade into obscurity.

Time will tell, but I hope they can reinvent themselves, as they can no longer ride the crest of the golden age of Scrum wave.

It’s time for a new wave, and trying to ride the wave of others won’t cut it.