Maarten, do you have examples of large(r) corporations that do survive at a desirable point on the predictability-adaptibility spectrum? And not just in a tautological "they're successful, therefore" way. I just wonder if it's impossible to cross a certain scale threshold and not be in red roadmap land. Like goverments, I suppose.
There are some examples but they are rare e.g. Haier, Buurtzorg.
Another example is Valve Software but they violated your rule and intentionally stayed small despite making billions in revenue (they're the richest company per employee in the world).
I like the way this quadrant shows that the duality between the red roadmap and the blue roadmap is not binary.
The red curve you drew on this quadrant to illustrate the ideal positioning is very telling. It’s very smart and, in my opinion, easy for an executive committee to grasp.
This breakdown is brilliant. The plasticity-stability analogy from neural networks maps perfectly to product planning, haven't seen that connection made before. The "penguin principle" nails why so many organizations default to red roadmaps without realizing it's a survival mechanism, not strategy. What stood out most is how front-loading decisions creates the exact opposite of predictability when dealing with uncertainty. Seen this play out alot in companies trying to scale agile frameworks.
Maarten, do you have examples of large(r) corporations that do survive at a desirable point on the predictability-adaptibility spectrum? And not just in a tautological "they're successful, therefore" way. I just wonder if it's impossible to cross a certain scale threshold and not be in red roadmap land. Like goverments, I suppose.
There are some examples but they are rare e.g. Haier, Buurtzorg.
Another example is Valve Software but they violated your rule and intentionally stayed small despite making billions in revenue (they're the richest company per employee in the world).
Will look them up. Thank you.
Very illuminating. Helps explain why certain roadmaps worked and some didn't at previous companies, and how I can best approach in the future.
That was exaxtly what I was hoping to achieve!
Brilliant Maarten, as always
Thanks! Curious to hear what resonated the most.
I like the way this quadrant shows that the duality between the red roadmap and the blue roadmap is not binary.
The red curve you drew on this quadrant to illustrate the ideal positioning is very telling. It’s very smart and, in my opinion, easy for an executive committee to grasp.
This breakdown is brilliant. The plasticity-stability analogy from neural networks maps perfectly to product planning, haven't seen that connection made before. The "penguin principle" nails why so many organizations default to red roadmaps without realizing it's a survival mechanism, not strategy. What stood out most is how front-loading decisions creates the exact opposite of predictability when dealing with uncertainty. Seen this play out alot in companies trying to scale agile frameworks.
So refreshing to read this from someone who understands how software engineering and products really work!
Thanks for the kind words!